Why Is This US Shutdown Distinct (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Government closures have become a recurring element of US politics – however this one feels particularly intractable because of political dynamics and bad blood between both major parties.
Some government services face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 people are expected to be put on unpaid leave as Republicans and Democrats remain unable to reach consensus regarding budget legislation.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse continue to fall short, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as each side – as well as the President – can see some merit in digging in.
These are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
The Democratic base has been demanding over recent periods for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now the party leadership have an opportunity to demonstrate they have listened.
Earlier this year, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to demonstrate their ability to reclaim certain authority from an administration pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support together with Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail executive utilization of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret of the fact that they perceive an opening to make more of reductions to the federal workforce that have featured the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials said it would be left with the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the halting of government financial support for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker from the majority party, charged opposition members of not being serious about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "to get political cover".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation at the other side, stating how a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The administration leader personally has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the legislator appears wearing traditional headwear and facial hair.
The affected legislator with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Experts project about 40% of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of government activity tied to business comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
However, economic activity generally rebounds most of that lost activity following resolution, as it would after disruption caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why financial markets have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say should administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.